World Fruit Map: shifting supply and trade dynamics

The fruit sector is on the move, and not just a little. The latest World Fruit Map from RaboResearch highlights rising prices, shifting supply, and changing trade routes. Europe and the US are becoming increasingly reliant on fruit from other parts of the world.

Less oranges, more avocado

Superfruits like blueberries and avocados continue to perform well. Pricey or not, demand remains strong, especially in the EU and the US. In contrast, fruits like oranges, peaches and grapefruits are slowly disappearing from the picture.

Frozen fruit is also gaining ground. Over the past ten years, global exports have risen from USD 4 billion to nearly USD 7 billion. In China, durians and sweet cherries are popular as luxury gifts. Outside Asia, durians remain a niche product, mainly due to their smell and price.

Fruit keeps getting more expensive

Since 2020, fruit prices have risen sharply. In the EU, they’re now around 30% higher than five years ago. In the US, the increase is 19%. The main reasons? Higher costs for labour, energy, inputs and transport, on top of disease pressure and extreme weather.

2023 was a clear example of the sector’s vulnerability. El Niño disrupted blueberry production in Latin America, while orange-growing regions in Brazil and Florida faced citrus greening and adverse weather. The price of frozen concentrated orange juice surged by 370%.

New leaders in fruit exports

The global export rankings show some striking shifts. Mexico jumped from 7th to 2nd place. Peru climbed from 13th to 7th. Thailand rose from 14th to 6th, mainly thanks to growing durian demand from China. The US dropped to 4th. Spain still tops the list, and the Netherlands remains a key gateway into the European market.

Fruit varieties are also evolving. More and more exports come from proprietary breeds. In Peru and South Africa, around 80% of table grape exports now come from such varieties, up from less than 20% in 2017. Bananas and avocados are the exception. Traditional varieties like Cavendish and Hass continue to dominate global trade.

View the World Fruit Map

Rabobank.com