Young farmers essential for stable food supply chains

The agricultural sector is aging at a rapid pace. That doesn’t just affect farms themselves, but the entire food chain that depends on them. The pressure is increasing, and the sector feels it every day.

Young farmers needed to safeguard continuity

In the Netherlands, only ten percent of agricultural entrepreneurs are younger than 40. At the same time, more than half of farmers over 50 have no successor lined up. This puts strain on the future of our food production. That’s why the European Commission introduced plans in October to support farm succession. The goal is clear: doubling the share of young farmers in the EU to 24 percent by 2040. They are essential for food security and for keeping rural areas livable.

The country has around 49,000 agricultural businesses—large, small, and everything in between. Most operate as partnerships, while larger greenhouse vegetable companies more often choose a private limited structure. Notably, young farmers are more common in these larger operations. Research by Ipsos I&O shows that succession is usually arranged within the family: in 90 percent of cases, a family member is the intended successor. Only four percent consider ending the business entirely.

Positive production outlook for 2025, contraction to follow

For 2025, ABN AMRO forecasts a three percent increase in production volume across the agricultural sector and fisheries. Arable yields were significantly higher than in 2024, and milk production recovered strongly after an earlier dip. The outlook shifts after that. For 2026 and 2027, contractions of -2.0 and -0.5 percent are expected, mainly due to a further reduction of the livestock population. Remarkably, arable land use expanded by three percent this year.

Business succession remains complex and capital-intensive

Transferring a farm may sound straightforward, but it rarely is. High land prices complicate the financial side, while the emotional aspect within families can weigh just as heavily. Dairy farmers face an additional challenge starting in 2032: fully land-based operations. Land is scarce and expensive, and that reality shapes what a business can or cannot do.

As a result, the future outlook is not always clear. Permits, regulations, location—everything plays a part. And that can make decisions difficult for successors. Fiscal arrangements such as the BOR, establishment grants for young farmers, and the doorschuifregeling remain important tools. So do new forms of land access through lease, ground lease, or initiatives like Aardpeer and Land van Ons. Within families, early conversations make a real difference. They help prevent unwelcome surprises when the moment of succession finally arrives.

Abnamro.nl