Veal farming in 2040 closer to home again

The Dutch veal farming sector will look fundamentally different in 2040 than it does today. Fewer animals, fewer farms, and a clear focus on the Netherlands define the future scenario outlined by Rabobank. This development requires far-reaching choices across the chain, while aligning more closely with societal expectations around animal welfare, the environment, and transparency.

Back to Dutch origin

By 2040, veal farming has largely returned to its original function: adding value to calves from the Dutch dairy sector. The import of calves has declined sharply. Due to contraction in the dairy sectors of neighboring countries, only a limited number of animals now come from nearby markets. Imports from more distant countries have been phased out as a result of stricter requirements on transport distance and duration.

Combined with a contraction of the Dutch dairy sector and tighter welfare standards, production has fallen by well over 30% compared with 2023. Part of this shift is explained by calves remaining longer on dairy farms.

Fewer farms, different distribution

The number of veal farms has declined by more than 60%. Only larger operations are able to invest in animal welfare and environmental measures. As a result, the sector is smaller, but also distributed differently across the Netherlands. Traditional concentrations in the Veluwe region and North Brabant have thinned considerably due to relocation and farm closures, often near Natura 2000 areas.

“The current concentrations of veal farmers in the Veluwe and North Brabant – often close to Natura 2000 areas – have been significantly diluted through relocation and closures.” The location of dairy farms has become the guiding factor, with minimal transport distances as the objective. As more Dutch veal is consumed domestically, less imported meat is required.

Animal welfare and sales in balance

Animal welfare has clearly improved by 2040. Calves remain on dairy farms longer and are transported several weeks later. Housing provides more space, greater comfort, and group housing, with separation of manure and urine. Roughage and hay support natural rumination and appropriate hemoglobin levels. As a result of these measures, antibiotic use has declined sharply.

The meat is no longer pale, but rosé or red, fitting better within the beef assortments of Dutch retailers. A larger share of veal is sold in the Netherlands. Exports have fallen by 25 to 35% compared with 2023. Through certification, strong chain coordination, and a digital passport on the packaging, the earning model for a smaller sector remains intact.

Rabobank.nl