Recovery of the industry has yet to reach food sector

The Dutch manufacturing industry gained considerable momentum in the second quarter of 2026. The food industry lagged behind this recovery, although the decline in sales was smaller in June than in April and May. Manufacturers’ confidence remained negative in July. Expectations for business activity were positive, however.

Turnaround began in March

The manufacturing industry as a whole started 2026 with declining sales. In January, sales were 2.5% lower than a year earlier. One month later, the gap had widened to 3.4%. A turnaround followed in March, when sales rose by 11.2%.

This growth continued in the second quarter. Sales increased by 7.7% in April, 8.9% in May and 8.5% in June. Foreign sales were the main contributor. In June, they were 9.3% higher than a year earlier. Domestic sales increased by 7.1%.

The food industry followed a different trend. Sales were still up 9.1% in the first quarter of 2025. Growth then slowed. By the fourth quarter, sales growth had fallen to 1%.

In early 2026, growth gave way to a decline. Sales were 7.3% lower year-on-year in January and 7% lower in February. The gap narrowed to 2% in March. Sales then fell by 8.6% in April and 7.1% in May. The decline eased to 5.9% in June.

Smaller decline in June

Both domestic and foreign sales were lower in June than a year earlier. Domestic sales fell by 6%, while foreign sales declined by 5.8%. This made the decline smaller than in April and May.

Sales fell by an average of around 7% in the second quarter. The decline was just over 5% in the first quarter. Output prices also continued to fall. In January, they were 4.7% lower than a year earlier. By June, the gap had widened to 6.6%.

Nearly every segment faced lower output prices. Prices in the dairy industry fell by 8.9% in June. The fish processing industry recorded a decline of 7.2%. Prices fell by 6.2% in the flour industry and by 6% in slaughterhouses and the meat products industry. The bakery and dough products industry saw prices decline by 4.4%.

The other food products industry recorded the largest decline, at 11.6%. The oils and fats industry was the exception. Output prices in this segment rose by 2.1%.

Positive expectations for business activity

Manufacturers’ confidence in the food, beverage and tobacco industry stood at -1.9 in July. The assessment of order levels remained negative at -7.8. Expectations for business activity, however, were positive at 6.4.