Price decline puts pressure on the pork supply chain

The European pork market enters 2026 in unusually weak shape. Prices are under pressure while supply is increasing. An outbreak of African swine fever in Spain and trade restrictions are causing unrest. These developments are being felt throughout the meat processing chain.

Price decline driven by African swine fever

In December, European pig and piglet prices fell, contrary to the usual seasonal pattern. That decline continued into January. In week 2 of 2026, the average EU pig price was 17 percent lower than a year earlier. Piglet prices were 38 percent lower.

The trigger was African swine fever among wild boar in Catalonia. The first infections were confirmed there in late November. The outbreak led to trade restrictions on Spanish pork. Countries such as Japan, the Philippines, Mexico, Malaysia, and Thailand fully halted imports. Since late November, the price of Spanish live pigs has fallen by 30 percent.

Additional supply on the European market

Because of the import bans, more Spanish pork remained within Europe. This increased supply in a market that was already well stocked. In September 2025, pork production in the EU27 and the UK was 3.6 percent higher than a year earlier.

The sow herd remained stable in most major producing countries. In the Netherlands, the sow herd fell by 7 percent according to preliminary CBS figures. European exporters, including the Netherlands and Denmark, are expected to take over part of the export markets closed to Spain. At the same time, other countries are also trying to serve those markets, keeping overall supply high.

Margins under pressure and volatile export flows

Lower prices make European pork more competitive on the global market but put pressure on margins. These margins have now turned negative, despite favorable feed cost expectations. RaboResearch expects production in the first half of 2026 to remain above last year’s level.

Exports to China recovered only partially after the introduction of antidumping duties ranging from 4.9 to 19.8 percent. In September, EU pork exports to China fell by 33 percent. Additional shipments to other destinations kept total exports stable.

Dutch piglet exports to Spain and Germany also declined. A recovery is expected, but export volumes are likely to remain below last year’s level.

Rabobank.nl