Lower residue limits could curb food imports

Pesticides banned in Europe can still enter the market through imported products. Lowering European residue limits is intended to prevent this. However, stricter limits could affect trade, production, and consumer prices. The Joint Research Centre assessed the potential scale of these effects. In every scenario modeled, imports decline and European production increases. The ultimate impact largely depends on how exporters adapt.

Eighteen substances examined

The study focuses on imported food and animal feed. The researchers assessed the impact of lowering maximum residue levels to the limit of quantification.

They identified eighteen active substances that are not approved for use in Europe. Current residue limits for these substances exceed the limit of quantification. The study covers 235 products and trade flows from 86 countries.

The JRC linked data on approvals, residue monitoring, and international trade. It also examined authorization for use in third countries.

Exporter adaptation determines decline in imports

The JRC modeled three scenarios based on how exporters respond. Without adaptation, the affected trade flows could come to a complete halt. According to the model, total European agricultural imports would then fall by 41%.

If producers adapt their practices, that figure falls to 8%. In the third scenario, the decline is limited to 0.4%. The outcome depends on the cost of adaptation. The extent to which these substances are used in third countries also plays a role.

Higher European crop output partly offsets the decline in imports. According to the model, livestock output falls. Without adaptation, the price effects are considerable both globally and within Europe. If exporters adapt, these effects remain small.

Alternatives could increase costs

The JRC examined cyproconazole separately to assess the estimated substitution costs. Alternatives approved in Europe are available for this active substance. These alternatives could raise production costs by 20% to 40%.

The results vary considerably by substance, product, and exporting country. A single assumption about exporter behavior therefore does not fit every situation. The study does not cover social or environmental impacts. Due to limited detailed data, the scenarios represent a range rather than a forecast.

Jrc.ec.europa.eu