Growth in bread and pastry in 2025

After a period of stagnation, the Dutch bakery sector is showing growth again. Both bread and pastry are on the rise. Notably, it is not only supermarkets benefiting, but artisan bakeries as well. New figures from NBC show that the recovery is broad-based.

Growth in bread continues

Bread volume in the Netherlands will increase by 3.7 percent in 2025 compared to 2024. This marks a recovery after a slight decline the year before. Revenue is also rising by 4.6 percent, with growth mainly driven by higher volumes.

Out-of-home consumption has been increasing for some time and is now back at pre-pandemic levels. At-home bread consumption has also shown clear growth again since last year. According to Susanne Danes of NBC, the artisan segment is also back in positive territory. “Also the artisan segment, which struggled for years with declining sales, is back on the rise in 2025.”

Pastry grows, but smaller portions

The pastry and cake market is developing more moderately. The volume of at-home consumption is increasing by 1.2 percent. Revenue is growing more strongly, by 4.9 percent, mainly driven by pastry.

A different trend is visible within cakes. Revenue is increasing, but volume is declining. According to NBC, this may be linked to the growth of smaller pastries. Consumers are more often choosing smaller portions, which affects total volume.

Price differences and pressure on the sector

Prices for bread and pastry have increased again over the past year. The gap between supermarkets and artisan bakeries continues to widen for bread. This makes it more challenging for artisan bakers to attract price-conscious consumers.

The picture is different for cakes. Prices are decreasing at artisan bakeries and increasing in supermarkets. As a result, the price gap is narrowing, but remains significant.

Looking ahead to 2026, NBC is cautiously optimistic. At the same time, geopolitical developments and consumer confidence remain uncertain. Policy measures, such as the NAPV and the planned broad sugar tax, may also impact the sector.

Nbc.nl