Global beef market at a turning point in 2024

The global beef market delivered unexpectedly strong results in the first half of 2024. Brazil reached record production levels, while China saw its highest-ever beef imports during the same period. In the United States, production figures were higher than anticipated, and European prices remained stable and strong. However, the upcoming quarter is expected to bring some changes. Market analysts predict a decline in U.S. production, with rising beef prices in Brazil. U.S. consumers may exhibit weaker purchasing power, which could also impact the global market.

While global production is expected to increase slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024, this growth is unlikely to last. Australia's production growth will not be enough to offset declines in other regions. Europe is expected to see a 1% drop in production, with New Zealand facing a 7% decline. Contractions are also expected in the U.S., Brazil, and China. This trend is likely to continue into 2025, with U.S. production set to fall below the ten-year average.

Changing consumer patterns in China

China remains a key player in the beef sector, but new trends are emerging. While beef consumption per capita remains lower than in other Asian countries, a shift is taking place. The demand for premium products appears to be slowing, with consumers focusing more on quality and affordability. Despite slower income growth, the demand for high-quality protein continues to rise, as cost-conscious consumers seek a balance between quality and price.

Research.rabobank.com