Food security depends on risks beyond national borders

Food security is often seen as a national issue. What happens within a country’s own borders tends to take center stage. New research shows that this approach is no longer sufficient. International trade is playing an increasingly important role. It can ease local drought-related problems, but at the same time introduces new risks.

Drought effects ripple through trade partners

The study examined 23 countries affected by conflict. In these countries, imports prove to be crucial for food supply. Yet drought risk assessments have traditionally focused mainly on domestic agriculture. That perspective fits reality less and less.

In a globalized world, countries depend on international trade to keep food available. When drought risks of trade partners are also taken into account, the risk profile changes significantly. In some cases by as much as 50 percent. In extreme situations, such as in Lebanon and Libya, up to 80 percent of the risk originates abroad. Drought beyond national borders therefore has a direct impact on food security.

Few exporters, major consequences

The study also shows how concentrated global trade flows have become. A small number of major exporters dominate the market. India, Russia, and the United States, among others, play a key role. This concentration makes countries vulnerable. If one of these exporters is hit by a severe drought, it can trigger a domino effect, affecting multiple countries at the same time. According to the researchers, these vulnerabilities often remain out of sight.

“By mapping global trade relationships and the associated drought risks, we expose hidden vulnerabilities, enabling countries to allocate resources more effectively and better prepare for the risks of food shortages caused by drought in remote regions,” says Henrique M.D. Goulart.

Measures to limit risks

To strengthen resilience, the researchers outline several strategies. Countries with high domestic risk can invest in irrigation and crop rotation. The use of crops from regions with lower drought risk is also mentioned. For countries that rely heavily on high-risk imports, the focus lies elsewhere. Diversifying trade partners can help reduce risks. This lowers dependence on a small number of dominant exporters.

Deltares.nl

The research was conducted by Deltares, together with Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Universiteit Twente, and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). It forms part of broader research into water, migration, and stability.