Food sector grows, but pressure on supply chains remains high

The Dutch food industry is performing well. In fact, ABN AMRO expects volume growth in 2025 to exceed its earlier forecast of 1%. Encouraging news—but behind the numbers lies a more complex reality. Supply chains are becoming increasingly unpredictable, costs continue to rise, and customers are more demanding than ever.

Companies with oversight hold the advantage

“Reliability and delivery assurance are more important than ever,” says Melanie Murk, Sector Economist Agri & Food at ABN AMRO. She notes that companies with a clear view of their supply chains, that use data effectively and maintain long-term relationships with suppliers and customers, have a clear edge.

The food industry remains a heavyweight in the Dutch economy. In 2023, its production value reached €114.4 billion—accounting for nearly one-fifth of total industrial output. With 163,000 direct jobs and another 398,000 indirect ones, the sector continues to run at full capacity.

That strength, however, also comes with vulnerability. More than 60% of total revenue comes from abroad. “A large majority of companies are concerned about geopolitics and shifts in demand,” says Murk. “Those concerns are not unfounded.”

From efficiency to resilience

The improved growth outlook is no reason for complacency. The sector still faces high costs, staff shortages and increasingly strict requirements from both customers and regulators. Climate issues add another layer of complexity: failed harvests and extreme weather continue to disrupt supply chains. “The time of a pure focus on efficiency and just-in-time is over. Companies are once again building larger inventories,” Murk says.

Growth through innovation and collaboration

Despite all the challenges, there’s still room for growth—mainly through innovation. Murk sees opportunities in automation and data-driven operations to maintain productivity. Consumers are also playing their part. “We see a growing divide between health and sustainability on one hand, and convenience and indulgence on the other,” she says. Producers are responding smartly, with hybrid products and new flavour combinations.

According to Murk, success today is about more than just volume. Companies that invest in digitalisation, flexible operations and strong relationships with both suppliers and customers have a clear advantage. “It’s not about how many tonnes you sell, but which ones,” she says. “Growth increasingly comes from value.”

Abnamro.nl