Food sector 2026: recovery continues cautiously

The outlook for the Dutch food sector in 2026 is moderately positive. Purchasing power is improving and consumer confidence is recovering cautiously, leading to higher volumes. That recovery, however, is unevenly distributed. Supermarkets benefit the most, while foodservice and specialty stores lag behind. At the same time, the sector continues to face uncertainty around costs, exports, and structural constraints.

Moderate economic outlook continues

RaboResearch expects economic growth of around 1.3% in 2026, broadly in line with 2025. Private consumption is seen as an important driver. Inflation is expected to decline toward 2% year on year, while unemployment rises slightly to an average of 4.3%. This moderate outlook is also reflected in the food sector, with a cautious continuation of the recovery that became visible in supermarket sales in the second half of 2025.

That recovery, however, remains at odds with low consumer confidence. Consumers remain cautious, partly due to the higher price level. Exports outside the EU remain uncertain, partly due to geopolitical developments. The recent introduction of Chinese import tariffs on specific dairy products underscores that risk. Labor shortages and grid congestion further limit room for growth and investment.

Sticker shock slows market recovery

Actual food price increases in 2025 ranged between 3.5% and 4%. From spring onward, prices stabilized, and several product categories even saw declines. Consumers, however, experience price developments differently. Old reference prices continue to dominate, making higher shelf prices stand out time and again.

Media attention on higher coffee and chocolate prices, along with headline inflation figures, reinforces this perception. As a result of this so-called sticker shock, volume recovery is taking longer than necessary. Only toward the end of 2025 did volumes begin to recover in supermarkets. For specialty stores and foodservice, a cautious volume recovery is expected only in 2026. Food price inflation is expected to come in at 2.5% to 3% this year, mainly driven by higher labor costs.

Differences between sales channels and product groups

Rising consumer spending does not automatically translate into growth across all channels. Foodservice is expected to see only limited revenue growth. Price increases driven by higher wages, rents, and raw material costs have widened the gap with supermarkets. According to the CBS business cycle survey, nearly a quarter of hospitality entrepreneurs cite insufficient demand as their main constraint.

Within retail, consumption of legumes continues to grow. In 2025, supermarkets sold approximately 10% to 15% more legumes than in 2022, partly due to a broader assortment. Dutch domestic cultivation, however, continues to lag behind. At the same time, the use of GLP-1 medications is increasing. These medications influence eating behavior and put pressure on volumes, while certain categories, such as dairy and functional beverages, are less affected.

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