Food industry keeps growing despite challenges

The Dutch food industry continues to grow in 2025, even though companies are running into limitations. Supply chain issues and staff shortages are holding the sector back. ABN AMRO forecasts a volume increase of 1.5 percent this year, with 0.5 percent in 2026 and 1 percent in 2027.

Domestic consumption and exports are the main drivers behind the growth. Dairy and meat processing together account for nearly 30 percent of total revenue. Fish, bakeries, confectionery, and fruit and vegetable processing make up roughly 25 percent, while beverage production contributes about 9 percent.

Demand and consumer behavior

Production volumes rose 1.5 percent in 2025, while food inflation stayed around 3.5 percent. Prices for beef (+27%), coffee (+23%), and chocolate (+16%) had a noticeable impact on sales of these products. Private labels continued to gain ground, reaching nearly 34 percent by the end of 2025, while promotional pressure in supermarkets remained around 27.5 percent. Consumers continue to switch between priorities: sometimes they focus on price, sometimes not. The share of bargain hunters grew from 35 percent in 2018 to 43 percent in 2024. Premium brands are feeling the pressure. Nestlé, Heineken, and Unilever have already carried out reorganizations.

Bottlenecks and structural pressure

Despite the growth, staff shortages remain a major challenge. CBS reports that 27 percent of companies lack sufficient labor. High wage costs continue to squeeze margins. Expansion and sustainability efforts are often stalled due to space constraints, lengthy permitting processes, and delays in grid connections. Beverage producers remain pessimistic about profitability due to insufficient demand. ABN AMRO expects consolidation, particularly among medium-sized companies. At the same time, regulations such as the EU Deforestation Regulation and the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation remain important for sustainability and packaging practices.

Abnamro.nl