Food export value falls by 8.7%

Dutch exports are growing, but the value of food exports is falling. In the first seven months of 2026, it was 8.7 percent lower than a year earlier. These findings come from ABN AMRO’s ‘State of the Food Sector’ report. For a sector that sells half its products abroad, that is a significant decline. The bank points to temporary economic headwinds and structural changes in key export markets.

Lower prices reduce revenue

Total Dutch exports grew by 3.7 percent over the same period. For food products, lower producer prices account for roughly three-quarters of the decline in export value. The remainder reflects lower volumes and shifts toward products with a lower export value.

According to the report, revenue in the food industry is also declining in 2026. ABN AMRO attributes this decline almost entirely to lower producer prices. Volumes remain stable from January through September. Higher volumes in Dutch retail and foodservice offset lower export volumes.

European buyers focus on price

Europe accounts for 80 percent of the value of Dutch food exports. Export value to this market fell by 8 percent. The decline was 6 percent for Germany and 11 percent for France. The United Kingdom recorded a decline of 12 percent.

European food prices remain substantially higher than a few years ago. Consumers are therefore watching their purchases closely, according to ABN AMRO. Retailers are focusing heavily on price, promotions, and a wider range of private-label products.

Outside Europe, higher transportation costs weaken the competitive position of Dutch producers. Fresh products are particularly vulnerable because they depend on refrigerated transportation. Their short shelf life limits the options for delaying shipments or choosing a different route.

China expands domestic food production

China is investing in agricultural productivity and food processing to reduce its reliance on imports. For frozen fries, this development is already evident in trade flows. Between 2018 and 2024, Chinese imports fell by 84 percent.

Investments by Lamb Weston, McCain, and Aviko helped expand Chinese production capacity. China is now exporting increasing volumes of fries to neighboring countries. As a result, demand for European fries is also declining in other Asian countries.

Abnamro.nl