European pork market under pressure from export strain

The European pork market is under significant pressure. Production remains high — something few had anticipated. On top of that, China has imposed anti-dumping tariffs on European pork. The impact is being felt across the entire chain, from farmers to slaughterhouses.

Production remains unexpectedly high

In July 2025, production in the EU27 and the UK was 3% higher than a year earlier. Spain showed the strongest growth (+7%), followed by Denmark and Poland (+5%). Italy, the UK and Germany also increased output by a few percent. The Netherlands, on the other hand, produced 3% less, with Belgium (-2%) and France (-1%) also showing declines.
According to RaboResearch, the stable sow herd is likely to keep production high for the time being. In Poland and France, the number of sows even increased slightly, while it remained stable in Spain. The Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Germany recorded a small decline. “A stable sow herd will probably lead to continued higher production in the second half of 2025,” the researchers noted.

Exports shift from Germany to Spain

The effects of the cessation scheme are starting to show. In the first 39 weeks of 2025, the number of pigs slaughtered in the Netherlands fell by 2.7%. Exports of finishing pigs to Germany dropped by more than half, while Spain took in considerably more Dutch pork (+37%). The same shift can be seen in piglet exports: fewer to Germany (-16%) and more to Spain (+20%). Overall piglet exports remained almost unchanged.
RaboResearch expects that the gradual exit of more producers will become increasingly noticeable. Slaughterhouses will feel it in the available volumes.

Prices fall due to Chinese tariffs

Since July, European pig prices have been on the decline — first because of ample supply and lower seasonal demand, and later due to China’s anti-dumping measures. China remains an important trading partner, accounting for 13% of Dutch pork exports and 34% when including by-products.
Although exports to China rose by 5% in the first half of the year, uncertainty is increasing. The country faces overproduction and is taking steps to stabilise domestic prices. By the end of 2025, one million sows are set to be culled. This will temporarily boost domestic supply and, in turn, reduce demand for European pork.

Rabobank.nl