Does the Netherlands feed the world? WUR questions it

The Netherlands is widely known as a major agricultural exporter. However, a new study by Wageningen University & Research (WUR) suggests that this picture changes when more than export value is taken into account. The researchers also included food imports, animal feed imports, and the land required to produce them. According to the study, the Netherlands' net contribution to the global food supply is therefore much smaller than is often assumed.

More than export value

For the study, published in Nature Food, the researchers used an agroecological model. This enabled them to calculate how many people the Netherlands could feed using its own agricultural land. They also included the agricultural land abroad needed to produce imported food and animal feed.

The analysis shows that the Netherlands could produce the current diet of its own population using domestic agricultural land. However, products that can hardly be grown in the country would have to be replaced with locally available alternatives. Doing so would require all available agricultural land. That would leave no room for exports or other societal goals, such as biobased raw materials, bioenergy, or additional nature development.

“If you only look at export value, you see only part of the story,” says researcher Imke de Boer. “We examined what happens when you also consider land use and the import of food and animal feed. It then becomes clear that the Netherlands' net contribution to the global food supply is very limited.”

Dependent on agricultural land abroad

The Netherlands has around 1.6 million hectares of agricultural land. In addition, approximately 4.7 million hectares of agricultural land abroad are needed to support current food production, consumption, and exports. That land is used to produce food and, in particular, animal feed imported into the Netherlands.

According to the researchers, the Netherlands imports more calories and protein than it exports on a net basis. From that perspective, the country is not a net exporter of calories and protein, but a net importer. The study shows that current exports of animal products are closely linked to imports of animal feed.

Alternative diets require less land

The researchers also evaluated several dietary patterns. A diet based on the Dutch dietary guidelines (Schijf van Vijf), a vegan diet, or the so-called LEAN diet requires less agricultural land than the current Dutch diet. According to the calculations, this would theoretically allow the Netherlands to produce enough food for an additional 10 to 18 million people. Even under that scenario, however, no land would remain available for other societal goals.

The researchers emphasize that this is a model-based assessment. “The Netherlands certainly has an important role to play in food and agriculture,” says De Boer. “But that role no longer lies in high-volume exports. Instead, our strength may lie in breeding materials, knowledge, and innovations that help other countries produce and consume food more sustainably.”

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