What will we eat in a circular food system?

A circular food system has huge potential benefits for both our own health and the health of our planet. But what will we eat in the circular food system? An international group of researchers from Wageningen University & Research outlined the opportunities in four scenarios on how the current system can change into a fully circular food system.

There are huge gains to be made if we switch to a circular food system. As much as 71% less agricultural land would be needed in a fully circular agriculture system. A 29% per capita reduction in greenhouse gases is also feasible, even while still producing enough food for a healthy diet for all.

Four scenarios: from production-driven to fully circular

Four scenarios were developed: a baseline scenario, AgriBase (the current production-driven system) and three scenarios based on circular principles.

In the first of the three circular scenarios (CirAgri), circular principles are applied to the production systems while we continue our current food consumption pattern. 

In the second scenario (CirHealth), the current consumption pattern is transformed into a healthy dietary pattern (based on the idea that overconsumption is basically a form of waste). Both scenarios reduce the amount of agricultural land required by over two thirds and decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 22% (if we continue our current consumption pattern) and by 29% if we switch to a healthy diet.

In the final scenario (CirPop+), Europe’s agricultural land is used to produce as much healthy food as possible. In this scenario, we could feed an additional 767 million people (+149%) outside Europe and so contribute to alleviating the global food crisis. This will, however, require using all of Europe’s agricultural land for this purpose. Moreover, total greenhouse emissions increase by 55% in this scenario.

What is required for the transition?

The following conclusions apply to the transition to a circular food system in the EU and the United Kingdom:

• Consumption patterns need to shift to healthier diets. Consumption of animal products must fall by about 50%.
• Livestock will play an important role in the transition, but their numbers must be drastically reduced. Milk and fish will remain relatively important, while beef cattle and pigs will virtually disappear.
• Fewer cereals and fewer fodder crops will be grown, but relatively higher volumes of other crops such as soybeans will need to be produced.
• The current crop rotation system diminishes the potential of the circular system. Completely avoiding feed food competition will actually increase the amount of agricultural land required because feed crops can then no longer be used within rotation. One solution could be to increase the proportion of food crops in rotations but this requires deploying new agro-ecological systems and diversification of cropping. 
• Organic and mineral manure will still be needed in circular food systems. The proportion of organic manure could be increased, for example, by making optimal use of human manure.
• The land required for production is reduced, particularly grassland. This could offer opportunities to improve biodiversity in some areas. The transition will require planning and a clear vision for the long term.

View the scenarios
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