US Tariff Pressures EU Cheese Export Market

A 10% import tariff on EU cheese introduced by the United States is weakening the European export position. According to Rabobank, this is expected to result in a 10 to 15% decline in US imports of European cheeses. American producers are likely to fill the gap quickly with domestic supply. For European cheese manufacturers, this will mean shifting focus to alternative markets.

Interest is increasingly moving towards East Asia and the Middle East, where demand is on the rise and opportunities exist for exporters facing declining sales in the US. The impact, however, differs across dairy categories. Butter appears to be largely unaffected. The US remains a net importer, and previous tariff increases have had minimal effect on European butter exports.

The financial stakes are considerable. Annual EU exports of cheese and butter to the US represent nearly €1.9 billion. For companies with a strong dependence on the American market, the new tariffs may have a significant effect—especially where profit margins are already under pressure and alternative sales channels cannot immediately compensate for lost volume.

It serves as a reminder that geopolitical decisions can directly impact the invoice.

Rabobank