True Value puts food chain under pressure

The Dutch agrofood sector is facing a clear transition. Where production and efficiency long took the lead, the focus is shifting toward broader value. In its agrofood vision, Rabobank outlines how the food system must change to remain within ecological limits. This development affects the entire chain, from primary production to processing and retail.

Lower volume, different balance

Pressure on space and the environment is increasing. As a result, production volumes in agriculture and horticulture are expected to decline. The livestock population could decrease by 20 to 30 percent by 2040 compared to 2023. A more extensive use of land is also expected in arable farming and open-field horticulture.

At the same time, the Netherlands remains one of the most efficient producers worldwide. The sector achieves high output per hectare and per animal, with relatively low emissions per kilo of product. This is offset by higher emissions per hectare. This calls for a different balance between scale and value, including the impact on nature and the living environment.

Revenue models are shifting

Lower production volumes do not necessarily have to reduce earning capacity. In practice, there are examples where the same or higher returns are achieved with less volume. This is partly due to higher prices and lower costs for inputs such as feed, fertilizers, and crop protection.

At the same time, new revenue models are emerging. These include income from carbon storage, biodiversity services, and short supply chains. Diversified farming activities are also gaining importance. Revenue from side activities could grow from €1.2 billion in 2020 to €5 billion in 2030.

Protein transition and chain collaboration

The shift toward more plant-based proteins continues. The current ratio of approximately 60 percent animal and 40 percent plant protein is moving toward 40/60. This creates opportunities for Dutch growers, including in the cultivation of legumes.

Initiatives such as Plant Protein Forward show that new supply chains are emerging. These focus on demand-driven cultivation, transparent cost pricing, and long-term collaboration. Further scaling requires chain collaboration, security of demand, and a stronger revenue model for growers.

Rabobank emphasizes that collaboration across the chain is essential to enable this development.

Rabobank.nl