Too many potatoes, too few export opportunities

The potato acreage in the EU has seen a sharp increase this year. With an additional 77,000 hectares, the total now stands at 1.47 million hectares. That’s a 5.5% rise, the biggest jump in years. France expanded significantly, but Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands also ramped up production. Together, the four countries are now growing over 600,000 hectares of potatoes for consumption.

What complicates matters: much of this expansion was planted without a contract. Over the winter, growers bet on a favorable market and filled their maximum contract quota with fries producers. But since then, the free market has collapsed, and the industry has scaled back its volumes.

The expected harvest? It could reach 25 million tons. Under ideal conditions, even closer to 30 million tons. According to DCA Market Intelligence, that’s far more than the market can absorb right now.

Fries exports under pressure

Global demand for fries is still growing, by more than 4%. Yet Europe is struggling to keep up. France is holding its ground with +30%, but Belgium is slipping (-6.6%) and Germany remains flat. The Netherlands? Despite additional production capacity, growth is limited to just +3.6%.

Meanwhile, India, China, and Egypt are gaining ground. These countries are investing heavily in processing and export. Their products are cheaper, and increasingly higher quality, and the numbers reflect that. China’s fries exports rose by 75% in just one year. India saw a 35% increase.

High costs, prices locked in

In the Netherlands, the contract price for potatoes stands at around 40% of the current trade price for French fries. Producers are looking to cut costs, but labor and energy remain expensive. For the 2025/26 delivery season, contract prices are at record highs. Large volumes have already been secured early on, leaving producers with little room to benefit from lower free-market prices. It’s creating a volatile and fragile market.

For consumers, not much will change. Fries remain widely available, but they won’t be getting cheaper. The high costs are still working their way through the supply chain.

Dcamarketintelligence.com