European sugar production expected to fall by 22%

The latest estimates point to a different season ahead for the European sugar market. The Commission expects production to fall by around 22 percent and imports to nearly double. Stocks are also expected to decline substantially. Sugar prices, however, have shown less movement so far. In September, prices were still below their level a year earlier. The market report outlines the shifts expected for 2026/27.

Lower production, higher imports

The European Commission published its sugar market report on October 30, 2026. It estimates production within the European Union at 12.90 million metric tons. Estimated production for the 2025/26 season stands at 16.58 million metric tons. The new marketing year runs from October 2026 through September 2027.

For the Netherlands, the Commission expects production of 1.08 million metric tons. Preliminary figures put the Dutch sugar beet area at 76,000 hectares.

Sugar imports are expected to rise to 1.75 million metric tons. For the previous season, the Commission estimates imports at 910,000 metric tons. These volumes exclude sugar contained in processed products. An additional 850,000 metric tons of sugar are expected to enter in processed products. This brings total imports to 2.60 million metric tons.

Exports and stocks decline

Sugar exports are expected to fall to 600,000 metric tons. For the 2025/26 season, the Commission estimates exports at 1.64 million metric tons. These volumes also exclude sugar contained in processed products. For that category, the Commission expects exports of 2.45 million metric tons.

Stocks at the start of the season are estimated at 3.06 million metric tons. By the end, an estimated 2.22 million metric tons will remain. Figures for the new season are still preliminary.

Sugar prices edge higher

The average European price for white sugar was €503 per metric ton in September. That is €3 higher than the price in August. Compared with September 2025, however, the price was €26 lower.

Source: European Commission