RIVM identifies risks to the food supply

Drought and extreme rainfall can compromise the availability and quality of agricultural products. Participants in RIVM workshops therefore expect a greater risk of food shortages and price increases. Conflicts can also disrupt supplies, for example through border closures and sanctions. RIVM examined which developments could affect European food systems through 2050.

The institute combined a literature review with workshops in Bulgaria, Germany, and Italy. During these sessions, policymakers, scientists, business representatives, and representatives of civil society organizations discussed the potential impacts. They ranked climate change as the most important development in all three countries.

Raw materials and trade

According to the participants, drought, flooding, and heat stress can affect crops and livestock. The German participants also saw potential benefits from a longer growing season. This could create opportunities to grow new crops.

According to the participants, geopolitical conflicts can disrupt trade flows and increase food price volatility. They expect countries to place greater emphasis on self-sufficiency as a result. This could change food production, distribution, and availability.

Packaging and side streams

The German participants ranked the circular economy second. They see opportunities for new business models and more efficient use of raw materials. They also expect new standards for circular packaging and products made from side streams. They highlight the need to consider the safety of new materials. In this context, the report mentions non-intentionally added substances (NIAS).

Food technology was also considered an important development in Germany and Bulgaria. This includes alternative proteins and cellular agriculture.

Differences between countries

Italian participants identified artificial intelligence and machine learning as important developments. In Bulgaria, the declining availability of freshwater received considerable attention. RIVM emphasizes that European policy must take these regional differences into account.

The study identifies important developments and future challenges. It provides a basis for further scenario development within FutureFoodS. RIVM also incorporated health into the food systems framework.

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