Retail food waste plateaus: how will the supply chain respond?
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Retail food waste plateaus: how will the supply chain respond?

  • 10 July 2026

Supermarkets have made significant strides in reducing food waste. Between 2018 and 2023, retail food waste dropped by 34%. Over the last few years, however, this downward trend has stalled. This is shown in the annual study conducted by Wageningen University. This stagnation presents a clear challenge for food manufacturers.  

Persistence pays off for bread and meat  

Bread waste fell by 31% compared to 2018 levels. This was achieved through better forecasting via AI and 'yesterday's bread' initiatives. Fresh meat and fish saw an even sharper decline of 45%. Given their high carbon footprint, this reduction delivers major climate benefits. Toine Timmermans reports that the retail sector remains on track. The ultimate goal is to cut food waste in half by 2030.  

New products drive up shrinkage  

In contrast, waste for dairy and ready-to-eat meals has started rising again. This waste is now nearly back to 2018 baseline levels. The rollout of numerous new products is driving this extra shrinkage. When it comes to innovations, upfront demand is notoriously difficult to forecast. Refrigerated convenience products show a high inefficiency rate of 3.5%. Chilled and freshly squeezed juices take the crown with an 11.4% inefficiency rate. Reaching the expiration date remains the primary culprit here.  

Online players show high efficiency  

The monitor includes data from supermarkets representing 90% of the market share. For the first time, fully online operators were also included. Online players achieve an average food waste rate of just 0.39%. This percentage is significantly higher for brick-and-mortar supermarkets, sitting at 0.90%. Latoya Balogun of the CBL emphasizes that supermarkets continue to search for the right balance. According to her, "every shelf and every season offers new opportunities." 

Samentegenvoedselverspilling.nl

Source: Samen Tegen Voedselverspilling