Pig market under pressure due to global tensions

The European pig sector is under pressure in the second quarter of 2026. Tight margins, rising costs, and shifting trade flows are shaping the landscape. The impact is directly felt across the Dutch food industry. Lower supply, declining export volumes, and price pressure are affecting the entire chain, from primary production to processing. At the same time, international developments are adding further uncertainty to costs and sales.

Reduced supply from the Netherlands becomes visible

The sow herd in the EU grew by 0.6% in 2025. In the Netherlands, however, it declined by 5%. This development is reflected in production levels. In the first twelve weeks of 2026, the number of slaughters was 9% lower than a year earlier. The average slaughter weight decreased by 2%.

Buyout schemes are further reducing supply. At the same time, exports of live animals declined. The Netherlands exported 1.2 million piglets in the first quarter, compared to 1.56 million a year earlier. This represents a decline of 23%. Exports of finishing pigs fell by 40%, particularly to Germany and Spain.

Exports and prices under pressure

European pig prices saw a slight seasonal recovery in March but remain subdued. In week 12 of 2026, prices were still 10% below last year’s level. Sow farms are benefiting from higher piglet prices, while finishing pig producers continue to operate with negative margins.

Export patterns are shifting. In January, exports to China fell by 23%. Shipments to Japan and the Philippines also declined. At the same time, exports to South Korea and Vietnam increased. Chinese import demand remains weak, with a 19% decline in the first two months of 2026.

Costs and trade under strain

The conflict in the Middle East is increasing the risk of higher costs. Energy, fertilizers, and feed may become more expensive. Futures markets for agricultural commodities have risen slightly in recent weeks. Despite ample global supplies of corn, soy, and wheat, uncertainties persist.

Trade is also facing disruptions. Shipping route issues are leading to higher freight rates and longer transit times. At the same time, competition is intensifying. Brazilian pork exports rose by 10% in early 2026, with strong growth toward Asian markets.

Rabobank.nl