New trade flows reshape the beef market

The international beef market is facing new shifts. According to an analyses of DCA Market Intelligence cattle herds in Europe and the United States are shrinking, while export volumes from Brazil and Australia are growing. At the same time, Chinese import quotas are beginning to influence trade flows. As a result, competition among exporters is increasing and established export markets are shifting.

Import growth coincides with declining supply

The European cattle herd declined by 0.5% in 2025 to 71.53 million head. The number of cattle in the United States also continued to fall. Limited supply is increasing reliance on imports.

Trade figures reflect this trend. Extra-EU beef imports rose by 25.9% in January 2026 to 32,794 tonnes. Imports from Brazil (+58.8%), Uruguay (+47.9%), and Argentina (+6%) increased in particular. At the same time, intra-EU and extra-EU beef exports declined by 7.9% and 15.5%, respectively.

European beef prices rose sharply throughout 2025 and early 2026. Prices for young bulls were more than 32% higher than in 2024. Cow prices increased by nearly 40%. After peaking around week 9 of 2026, prices moved lower. According to the market analysis, this was linked to weaker consumer demand, particularly in Northern Europe.

Brazil and Australia expand exports

Brazil continues to strengthen its position in the global market. Slaughter volumes increased by 8.2% in 2025 to 42.9 million head. Production rose by 7.2% to 11.1 million tonnes. Through April 2026, exports were 15.2% higher than a year earlier.

Australia also exported more beef. Exports increased by 19.5% in the first quarter of 2026 to 391,893 tonnes. Shipments to the United States, China, and South Korea recorded the strongest growth.

Chinese quotas influence trade flows

China plays a key role in these market developments. Brazil has already used around 65% of its available import quota. Analysts expect the quota could be fully utilized as early as July. Australia had already used roughly 90% of its quota by early June.

Chinese buyers are now sourcing more beef from Canada, Argentina, and Uruguay. At the same time, Brazil and Australia are seeking adjustments to the quota system. Expectations of weaker Chinese demand have already weighed on Brazilian cattle prices. Since mid-April, those prices have fallen by approximately 4%.

Dcamarketintelligence.com