Lower US tariffs affect Dutch agricultural exports

After six months of trade tensions, the EU and the U.S. reached an agreement on July 28 2025. The threat of a 30 percent tariff has been withdrawn; instead, a standard import duty of 15 percent now applies – including to agricultural products. This time, there are no exemptions for food items such as Gouda and Edam cheese.

ABN AMRO estimates that Dutch agricultural exports to the US will drop by up to 35 percent. Sectors most affected include seafood, fruit and vegetables, and dairy. The total drop equals about 0.5 percent of the Netherlands' agricultural exports. For companies heavily dependent on the US market, the impact could be significant.

EU eases regulations

As part of the trade deal, the EU will ease regulations for American producers. Quotas are being expanded for products including cheese, soybeans, salmon, pollock, shrimp, and milk powder. Import duties will also be lifted on seeds, fertilisers, potatoes, and dried fruit and vegetables. The EU is exploring whether food safety certification for pork and dairy can be simplified. While the European Commission maintains that sustainability standards remain intact, these adjustments fit within a broader trend towards regulatory simplification, such as through the Omnibus legislation.

The US tariff has a dual impact. It raises import prices and is amplified by a weaker dollar. Since Trump’s return, the dollar has depreciated significantly. As a result, American buyers now pay more for European goods. In response, the EU is also fast-tracking new trade deals with Mexico and Mercosur countries to diversify export markets.

More supply, lower prices

An increase in American agricultural products on the European market is pushing prices down, particularly for Dutch dairy producers. The agreement prevents the EU from imposing retaliatory measures, which benefits the animal feed industry. Around 30 percent of European soy imports come from the U.S. Not all European import tariffs are being scaled back. Existing duties on tomatoes, cucumbers, courgettes, apples and pears will remain in place. No changes have been announced for poultry and beef either.

Although the overall impact on agricultural exports appears limited, uncertainty remains. Agreements on certification and product specifications often take time. Political resistance in the European Parliament and legal challenges in the US could delay implementation. Trump’s unpredictability only adds to the complexity.

In the short term, the damage appears manageable, but in the medium term, pressure on prices and regulations could become more tangible.

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