Grain stocks fall as consump­tion hits record

The global grain market will have less room in 2026/27. Production is declining, while consumption continues to rise. As a result, stocks are falling and the balance is shifting. This is becoming particularly clear in the maize market. IGC expects lower production and higher consumption there. At the same time, global trade is set to reach a new record.

Consumption rises to record level

IGC estimates global grain production at 2,421.8 million tons. That is 2.8 percent lower than last season. Even so, the harvest could still be the second largest on record.

Global consumption is expected to rise to 2,447.4 million tons. That is 0.2 percent higher than last season. Food use is forecast at 787.3 million tons. Feed use is expected to reach 1,111.6 million tons.

Ending stocks are forecast to fall by 4 percent to 610.1 million tons. According to IGC, this level is below average.

Maize stocks decline

Global maize production is forecast at 1,305.8 million tons. That is 2.8 percent lower than last season. Consumption, meanwhile, is expected to rise to 1,323.4 million tons.

Ending stocks are forecast at 293.3 million tons. That is 5.7 percent lower than last season. Of this volume, 173.4 million tons is held in China. This represents 59.1 percent of global stocks.

The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall to 22.2 percent. According to IGC, this is the lowest level since 2010/11.

Global maize trade grows

IGC expects a record trade volume of 204.9 million tons in 2026/27. The forecast was raised by 4.3 million tons.

EU maize imports are expected to reach 20.5 million tons. The United States remains the largest exporter at 78.4 million tons. Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine follow.

Agriculture.ec.europa.eu