FSIN: Battle for convenience consumer has begun

In the next ten years, traditional food service channels such as the hotel and catering industry will face fierce competition from supermarkets, which are plunging into the field of direct consumption. This is evident from the new FSIN Policy Monitor 2030. By means of a numerical prognosis and eight essays on the most important social themes, FSIN looks ahead to 2030.

In 2030, convenience will be the most important motive for consumers to buy food. In 2019, routine was still by far the most important purchase motive with a 40% market share. By 2030, that share will have shrunk to 33%. Consumer postponements, demographics and the rise of digital ordering platforms combined with some lingering effects of corona are the main causes. Of the €80 billion consumers will spend on food in 2030, €27.5 billion will be for convenience, or 34%.

The postponement behaviour of the convenience consumer will increase the share of direct consumption in total food sales. Direct consumption - the food someone buys and consumes immediately or a little later in the day - will rise from 53% in 2019 to 60.3% in 2030. This represents an increase in turnover of almost €17 billion.

The turnover of the total food sector in 2030 will be more than €80 billion. This means the market will grow by more than 40% compared to 2020. Foodservice sales will grow to €25.6 billion in 2030, from €12.3 billion in 2020, while food retail sales will increase from €44.5 billion in 2020 to €54.7 billion in 2030.

The market share of foodservice will still not have fully recovered by 2030. The main reason for this is the lagging sales trend in the (corporate) catering sector. It is noteworthy that the market share of home consumption is rising slightly. This is due to the growth of home deliveries and increasing competition from supermarkets in the area of foodservice solutions for the home.

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