Food sector sees first effects of weight-loss drugs

Weight-loss drugs are gaining ground quickly, but a major impact has yet to materialize. This is according to an analysis by ING. In Europe, around 2% of adults use these drugs. In the Netherlands, that share is about 3%. The impact on food demand remains limited for now, but the trend is continuing. For producers, this is leading to a gradual shift in consumer behavior.

Growth from a small base

The market for so-called GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is growing rapidly toward $100 billion by 2027. In 2025, revenue stood at around $70 billion. Still, usage in Europe remains relatively low. This is linked to costs and limited reimbursement.

Prices in the Netherlands range from €179 to €750 per month. On an annual basis, that amounts to €2,160 to €9,000. At the same time, prices are expected to decline due to increased competition and the introduction of pills. This could further support usage.

Limited effect on food demand

The impact on overall food consumption remains small for now. GLP-1 users consume on average 15 to 20% fewer calories. Due to the limited uptake, the total decline in demand is about 0.25%.

The effects do vary by category. Savory snacks, candy, chocolate, and alcoholic beverages are more exposed. Studies from the United States show that these categories are affected earlier. In Europe, this could slow growth potential in these segments.

Adjustment in product and strategy

Food companies are responding to this trend with product adjustments. Reformulation, smaller portions, and a stronger focus on premium products are gaining attention. There is also a shift toward protein- and fiber-rich options. In addition, marketing strategies are changing. Producers are focusing more on consumers who do not use GLP-1 drugs. There is also growing attention for consumers who stop using the medication over time.

These changes are filtering through the supply chain. For example, some sugar traders have already lowered their expectations for sugar consumption in North America and Europe.

Ing.nl