FAO: Global meat and fish consumption to rise by 6%

More meat and fish on the table, at least globally speaking. According to the latest Agricultural Outlook from FAO and the OECD, overall consumption is projected to rise by 6% by 2034. But if you assume that increase comes from wealthier countries, think again. Eating habits there are holding steady. The growth is happening elsewhere, and emissions are rising along with it.

Growth concentrated outside high-income countries

It's not so much how much people eat, but where they live that makes the difference. In high-income countries, per capita meat consumption is expected to remain more or less stable. The real growth is in low- and middle-income nations. Particularly in so-called lower middle income countries, intake of animal-based products is climbing fast, up 25% over ten years. That brings average consumption to over 300 kilocalories per person per day. In low-income countries, that figure stays around 143 kcal.

Worldwide, this translates into a 6% increase in total meat and fish consumption. A number that mainly reflects population growth, urbanisation, and shifting income levels.

More output, more emissions

To meet that growing demand, production will have to keep pace. And it will: by roughly 14% over the next decade. Not just by raising more animals, but also by producing more efficiently. Think intensive farming, improved feed, and fertiliser use. Still, there's a flip side.

Agricultural emissions are on the rise as well. Even with a slight drop in emissions per kilogram of output, total greenhouse gas emissions from farming are expected to rise by 6%. Much of that increase is tied to scaling up production, especially in regions like Africa and South Asia.

Technology offers perspective, if conditions allow

There is an alternative scenario. One in which the world manages to reduce hunger while cutting emissions at the same time. The catch? It would require a global productivity increase of 15%, and widespread use of technologies that already exist.

Take Bovaer, for example, a feed additive developed specifically to reduce methane emissions in cattle. Or better nutrition, composting, precision farming. These technologies are already available in high-income countries. In lower-income regions, things are less straightforward. What’s needed there: targeted investments, and access to knowledge and financing.

Fao.org