European pork exports gain momentum

In the first four months of 2025, European pork production increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. Remarkable, considering the sow population had actually declined by 3%. Even so, countries like Spain, Italy, Poland, and the UK reported significant slaughter numbers.

Things went the other way in the Netherlands and Belgium. Fewer pigs ready for slaughter meant lower output. The total pig herd in the Netherlands shrank by 5%, with sow numbers down by 7%. The number of pig farms also dropped sharply, down 17% compared to the end of 2024. Termination schemes played a key role in that decline.

Prices remain weak as demand slows

Week 28 didn’t bring much good news on the price front. Carcass prices were 4% lower than they were this time last year. Piglets? Down by 8%. Seasonal dips in demand and strong market competition aren’t helping.

RaboResearch expects prices to fall further in the third quarter. In Northwestern Europe, they already dropped significantly in early July. Feed costs have come down, which leads to heavier carcasses and pushes production up. That, in turn, adds more pressure on prices.

Although the supply of slaughter pigs in the Netherlands is shrinking, processors are still working hard to keep slaughter lines full. As long as supply across Europe remains ample, downward pressure on Dutch prices is likely to persist. “Uncertainties over U.S. trade tariffs could lead to disruptions in global trade,” the report stated.

Export running at full speed, China the key driver

Between January and April, the EU and UK exported 5% more pork than a year earlier. China increased its imports by 10%, the Philippines by 2%, and Côte d’Ivoire by as much as 35%.

The increase to China mainly involved muscle cuts and by-products. Dutch exports to China rose by 14% in the first quarter compared to Q1 of 2024. The reason? Brazilian pork had become more expensive and was less competitive. That made European products more attractive. Brazil shifted its focus and nearly doubled exports to the Philippines, while shipments to Japan rose by 50%.

Animal disease approaching the Dutch border

On 14 June, African swine fever was confirmed in wild boars in North Rhine-Westphalia. So far, 36 cases have been reported across two districts.

There is one bright spot: Hungary and Slovakia appear to have foot-and-mouth disease under control. No new cases have been reported there since early April.

Rabobank.nl