Coffee expensive? Price increases aren’t over yet

The price of coffee keeps rising, and there’s no end in sight just yet. Since early 2024, global market prices for coffee beans have nearly doubled. This is due to poor harvests, logistical issues, and stockpiling by traders. While Rabobank analysts expect prices to drop in the 2025/26 harvest year, supermarket prices are likely to rise even further first. A kilo of coffee costing over 20 euros? That’s a real possibility this year.

Global market prices remain high

Arabica and Robusta prices have reached record levels. This is mainly due to disappointing harvests in Brazil and Vietnam, logistical disruptions such as delays in the Suez Canal, and increased stockpiling in Europe and the US. In 2024, traders imported 8% and 9% more coffee, respectively, in anticipation of stricter European regulations and potential US import tariffs.

Although global coffee consumption has declined due to rising prices, raw material costs remain high. Rabobank expects prices to ease slightly later in 2025, but they will still be around 60% higher than in early 2024.

Supermarket prices rising with a delay

In supermarkets, coffee prices increased by an average of 8% in 2024, but most of the impact from higher raw material costs has yet to filter through. Due to supply contracts and stock levels, this typically takes six to nine months.

At the start of 2024, the average supermarket price for a kilo of coffee was around 15 euros. With rising procurement costs, this could climb to 20 euros per kilo—or even 25 euros if additional expenses such as transport and energy are factored in. Whether the full increase will be passed on to consumers depends on how demand responds. Previous price hikes led to a 5% drop in coffee sales. Coffee may be a daily essential, but not at any price.

Rabobank.nl