Chocolate prices stabilise, but remain elevated

After years of rising prices, the chocolate market is finally seeing some calm. The sharp peaks appear to be behind us. Still, producers and retailers face a tough equation: cocoa remains expensive, margins are under pressure, and consumers are turning more often to private labels.

Cocoa prices are falling, but not to previous levels

Poor harvests, crop diseases, ageing cocoa trees—problems have been piling up. At the end of 2024, cocoa prices on futures contracts peaked at $11,900 per tons. Prices have since dropped below $7,500, but that’s no reason to relax. Rabobank expects a further decline to $5,300 per tons by 2027. Even so, that would still be more than twice the average price in 2021.

Meanwhile, supermarket chocolate has become significantly more expensive. “The premium chocolate bar we used as an example in our report last year now sells for one euro more,” the report states. That same bar now costs €3.95, compared to €2.93 in 2021.

Private labels gain ground as volumes drop

Consumers have responded. According to Circana, the Dutch are now eating around 10% less chocolate than four years ago. Still, the volume decline seems to be levelling off. Private labels have gained market share—and that’s no coincidence. The price gap between branded and private label chocolate? Roughly €11 per kilo at this point. Supermarkets are seizing the opportunity to introduce lower-priced alternatives, often positioned just above the regular private label.

Branded manufacturers have little choice but to respond. Smaller packs, adjusted recipes, sometimes lower-cost ingredients—everything to keep the price psychologically acceptable. And margins? Those are feeling the squeeze.

Industry adapts and seeks alternatives

A return to the old normal isn’t likely anytime soon. Even if cocoa prices continue to fall, other costs are pushing upward. Labor, energy, packaging—it all adds up. Manufacturers are looking for ways to reduce their dependence on one highly volatile commodity.

Major players are investing in lab-grown cocoa and precision fermentation. Not to replace cocoa, Rabobank stresses, but to build a more resilient supply chain. 

Rabobank.nl