Agricul­tural raw material supply declines

Dutch agriculture and horticulture produced more in 2025 than a year earlier. Favorable weather conditions resulted in high yields in arable farming and greenhouse horticulture. The dairy sector also managed to increase production thanks to the high quality of forage. The outlook for the coming years is different. Due to government measures aimed at reducing livestock numbers, ABN AMRO expects production volumes in Dutch agriculture and horticulture to decline.

Buyout schemes put pressure on production

According to the bank, production volumes are expected to decrease by 3 percent in 2026. A further decline of 1.5 percent is forecast for 2027. The decrease is mainly linked to voluntary farm closure schemes for livestock farmers. Of the 1,576 applications submitted under the National Livestock Farm Buyout Scheme (Lbv(+)), 1,435 have been approved. So far, around 65 percent of participants have actually made use of the scheme.

In sectors with stronger financial results, such as poultry farming and, to a lesser extent, veal production, that percentage is lower. The sharpest reduction in livestock numbers is expected in 2025 and 2026. Businesses are required to cease operations within one year of receiving approval for the subsidy. In addition, the Dairy Farm Extensification Support Scheme (Sem) has been introduced for dairy farmers. If the available budget is fully utilized, 4 percent of the dairy herd could be bought out. According to ABN AMRO, the impact of this measure will not become visible in raw milk production until 2027.

Less exceptional harvests expected

Agricultural and horticultural production remains highly dependent on weather conditions. In the 2025/2026 harvest year, potato production achieved its highest yield in 25 years. Sugar beet yields reached their highest level in eight years.

For the 2026/2027 harvest year, yields are expected to return to more typical levels. Stricter nitrogen regulations and reduced use of crop protection products are expected to play a role. Crop plans are also shifting. Less attractive pricing is leading growers to plant fewer potatoes and sugar beets. At the same time, more acreage is becoming available for crops such as onions and carrots.

Abnamro.nl