Adjiedj Bakas: 'Our view on food is far too problematic'

The food industry is dynamic and a sector that is full of developments and trends. What trends can we expect in the near future? We spoke to one of the Netherlands' most renowned trendwatchers: Adjiedj Bakas.

For over 30 years, he has shared his insights on trends that, according to his intuition, are likely to shape the future. Bakas always begins his process with a gut feeling, which he later supports with evidence. Drawing from a diverse global network of inventors, patent offices, SMEs, startups, and multinationals, he compiles his findings on megatrends, geopolitics, and the global economy. Bakas shares these insights through his work as a speaker and in various books. Occasionally, he focuses on specific topics, such as food.

How has our perspective on food changed compared to the past?

"Our current view on food has certainly become much more problematic than it was, say, 15 years ago. There's a lot of guilt. Much of it is blamed on the climate. We're told we shouldn't eat (red) meat anymore because it's harmful to the climate. The same goes for chocolate: climate. But it's unnecessary. The impact on the climate is not as severe as it's made out to be. Yes, humanity contributes to extreme weather and climate change. But we shouldn't blame every rainstorm on climate change. For climate extremists, it's almost become a religion. Their climate movement is like an Inquisition, punishing people for their pleasures.

I think back to the 1970s, when we also had problems, but we weren't nearly as fearful as we are today. In the West, we've become pessimistic, even though science and technology have advanced tremendously. Many things that were once science fiction have become reality – just look at the mobile phone. In places like Asia and Africa, people laugh at our problematic view. They know that it's better to laugh and enjoy life. Their motto is #forwardism, and I think we need to embrace that too."

As a trendwatcher, you delve into various topics, including food, which you wrote a book about in 2012. The follow-up, The Future of Food, is set to be released next spring. What will surprise readers the most in this book?

"Many of the things we currently expect to happen simply won't. For example, a tax on fat and sugar. Denmark has already abandoned its sugar tax, and we'll see the same here. What we do see, however, is that Danish pension funds are investing in weight loss injections. If, in ten years, no one struggles with obesity anymore, there's no need for these taxes.

We have other problems to focus on. For instance, loneliness is far deadlier than obesity or smoking. We also need to address issues like extreme weather and disappointing harvests. More farmers will likely begin insuring themselves against these risks in the future to stay afloat."

What do you see as the key trend in consumer food behavior over the next five years?

"Several developments are at play. Aging is one of them, leading to people consuming smaller portions. We're also seeing an increasing shift towards vegetarian food, with more meat alternatives hitting the market. At the same time, developments in lab-grown meat are advancing. Singapore is the first country to approve its sale, a fantastic step forward. It means we can enjoy meat without the need for slaughter. There are also pilot projects in the Netherlands. Interestingly, I think this will actually lead to a decline in the number of vegetarians. Another trend is that Dutch consumers are growing tired of being told what they can and can't eat. We want to be de-patronized."

What other developments do you foresee?

"Multiculturalism and our love of travel have already made Dutch cuisine more international, and that trend will continue. Our food will become even more enriched. This could mean using more herbs or experimenting with new flavors. For example, a recent invention that has already been patented is a spoon that can enhance the salty taste of food without needing to add salt to the dish itself.

Another significant trend is the medicalization of food. What exactly does that mean?

"It refers to the increasing consideration of food as medicine, which has been happening for some time. Bitter vegetables, for instance, are said to help with headaches, though not everyone enjoys their taste. That’s why producers have bred bitterness out of vegetables like Brussels sprouts and chicory; they are less bitter now than they were 20 years ago. We're even developing plants in the Netherlands, vegetables that taste like cashew nuts. Everyone enjoys that, and it still counts as eating vegetables. Our grandmothers knew that certain herbs and vegetables were good for specific ailments, and this knowledge is being revived and applied on an industrial scale."

What other important trends do you see for the industry itself?

"Energy is the biggest challenge the industry faces at the moment. Oil and gas are expensive. But every war eventually ends at the negotiating table, and the war in Ukraine will be no exception. Russian oil and gas will eventually find their way back to the Netherlands via India. Moreover, the government is building new nuclear power plants, so I believe the energy crisis will eventually be resolved. This is crucial to prevent companies in the food industry from relocating abroad, as deindustrialization leads to economic decline.

Another trend is the rise of cooking robots. They are already being used in care homes and hospitals. All that’s needed is for someone to prepare the ingredients, and the robot handles everything else – washing, chopping, marinating, and cooking. In some cases, these robots can work in ten kitchens at once, making staff unnecessary. In China, this is a solution to their shrinking population caused by aging and the one-child policy. During my vacation in Italy, a robot delivered pizza to our table and even cleared the dishes. I was amazed. But even Italy has to adapt to its aging population."

Are we seeing this technology in other industries like the food industry?

"Yes, robots and AI are becoming more prevalent in various sectors. This has advantages. For example, in a Samsung factory, robots are used for maintenance. Every pipe in the machine installation has a backup, so if one fails, the other takes over. There's no need for technicians anymore. Hyundai is currently developing self-driving cargo ships, which will make it possible to transport goods and food worldwide without the need for personnel. This will also benefit companies in the food industry. Currently, strawberry harvests require Eastern European workers, but robots could take over this work. A part of labor migration will therefore disappear."

What role do you see for the government?

"It’s one of the country’s most aging sectors, with many civil servants set to retire soon. The government has big ambitions, but staff shortages mean they won’t be able to fulfill them. For example, regulating healthy eating habits is not something they can effectively enforce. This is why the aforementioned taxes won’t last, and the government will step back from food regulation. Ultimately, everyone has their own responsibility."

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Photos: © Billy Bob Trueblood