Urgenda 2020 Urgenda reduction target uncertain

The Cabinet's target: 49% fewer greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 than in 1990. Of that target, 34% is now in sight. This is what the PBL says in the Climate and Energy Outlook (KEV) 2020. The Urgenda target of a 25% reduction in emissions in 2020 compared to 1990 will only be achieved if COVID-19 has a substantial impact on the economy and thus on energy consumption, a relatively warm autumn and relatively little production by Dutch power plants.

Uncertain whether Urgenda 2020 target will be achieved

The PBL has combined data from the CBS for the first half of 2020 with two emission scenarios for the coming months.

1. Scenario High: the impact of COVID-19 remains limited, the last months of 2020 are relatively cold and conditions (in particular the ratio between coal and gas prices) are favourable for electricity production in the Netherlands. 

2. Scenario Low: there will be a second lockdown, relatively high temperatures and less electricity production in the Netherlands.

In order to reach the Urgenda target, emissions should not exceed 166 megatonnes of CO2 equivalents in 2020. In scenario High, emissions will reach 174 megatonnes in 2020, in scenario Low they will reach 164 megatonnes. It is therefore still uncertain whether it will be achieved.

Target of 2030

In order to meet the 2030 target, the PBL concludes that annual emission reductions should double from 3 megatonnes per year in the period 2010-2019 to 6 megatonnes per year in the period 2020-2030.

Reduction in electricity sector

Emission reductions are highest in the electricity sector. Here, emissions will be more than halved by 2030 compared to 2019, due to a sharp increase in renewable electricity and the closure of coal-fired power stations. However, emissions can fluctuate sharply from year to year due to weather and other conditions.

Klimaat- en Energieverkenning 2020 (Dutch only)
pbl.nl