Unexpected side effects of dietary changes

Wageningen University & Research used a global economic model to examine the consequences of the shift to the EAT-Lancet diet on a global scale. While healthier eating and a more sustainable diet offer benefits, the research warns of unexpected economic, social and environmental side effects.

Economic side effects

Economic side effects occur as demand for food and biomass decreases, resulting in lower prices for land and biomass. This can lead to expansion of agricultural areas and a decrease in fertilizer use and emissions. However, there is also less need for labor and capital, resulting in lower wages and incomes.

In low-income countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa, the shift to the EAT-Lancet diet may actually lead to an increase in demand for food and biomass, increasing agricultural prices and causing agricultural intensification.

Social side effects

At the social level, the change in food demand may affect wages. Lower demand for agricultural products leads to lower wages in agriculture, while growth in the non-food sector encourages higher wages in non-farm sectors. This increases existing income inequality between agricultural and non-farm workers.

Environment

The shift to healthier eating also increases demand for non-food products, resulting in higher greenhouse gas emissions. The additional emissions from non-food production exceed the decrease in biomass emissions from eating less, bringing global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 to the same level as if there were no dietary shifts.

While there are benefits to switching to a healthier and more sustainable diet, it is important to consider potential negative economic, social and environmental side effects. Modeling studies such as this one help design policy interventions that take this complexity into account.

Wur.nl/en