Trade restric­tions after FMD outbreak impact the pork sector

Pork prices in Europe started the year on a downward trend. The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Germany disrupted the market and led to trade restrictions. The key question is whether this is a temporary shock or the start of a prolonged decline.

Trade restrictions and price pressure

On January 10, 2025, FMD was detected in three water buffaloes in the German state of Brandenburg. This prompted third countries, including the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Mexico, to impose restrictions on German pork imports. In some cases, the bans extended to beef and dairy products as well.

The impact of these trade restrictions on the European market depends on further outbreaks and the duration of the bans. Within the EU, competition is expected to increase as Germany seeks to place its pork elsewhere. At the same time, other exporters, such as Denmark, the Netherlands, and Spain, may benefit by filling the gap in the UK and South Korean markets, which account for 5% and 3% of German pork exports, respectively.

Slight production decline and uncertainty

In the first nine months of 2024, pork production in the EU27 and the UK rose by 2% compared to the same period in 2023. However, this growth is unlikely to continue in 2025, as the sow herd shrank slightly in 2024. As a result, pork production in 2025 is expected to decline by 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the piglet market remains tight. In the Netherlands, supply is decreasing due to farm buyout schemes, while stricter environmental and animal welfare regulations in Spain are limiting herd expansion. Diseases such as African swine fever and PRRS continue to put pressure on productivity.

Currently, pork prices are under pressure due to a seasonal increase in supply and weaker demand. The FMD outbreak is adding to this effect. Whether the market recovers later in 2025 will depend on consumer demand, trade developments, and the further spread of the virus.

Rabobank.nl