Legislation, consumer behaviour and sustainability. Having a good strategy in 2020 is perhaps more important than ever for the entrepreneur. ABN AMRO is already providing insight and background into ten themes that will influence businesses and entire sectors of industry in 2020.
In May 2019, the PAS (Programmatic Approach to Nitrogen) scheme was discontinued because it was in conflict with the European Habitat Directive. Of all projects that emit additional nitrogen compared to the current situation, it must now first be demonstrated that they do not have an immediate significant effect on 118 of the more than 160 Natura 200 sites that are sensitive to nitrogen.
In any case, the decommissioning of the PAS scheme will have an impact on operators, especially in the construction sector. "Without concrete solutions, the loss of turnover for the construction sector could lead to the loss of 70,000 jobs in the coming years," says Madeline Buijs, sector economist for Construction and Real Estate.
PFAS is a collective name for some 6,000 substances with water, grease and dirt repellent properties, it is used in raincoats, pizza boxes, extinguishing foams, cosmetics and as a non-stick coating on Teflon pans. However, several studies have shown that some forms of PFAS can lead to different types of cancer, cardiovascular disease and reduced fertility.
The measures surrounding PFAS are becoming a challenge mainly for the construction, building materials industry, construction trade and transport sector. "Entrepreneurs from these sectors fear that the policy surrounding nitrogen and PFAS will cost them 8 percent of turnover in 2020. That would amount to approximately 16 billion euros," says Albert Jan Swart, sector economist Industry and Transport & Logistics.
Mobile networks are regarded as essential, strategic infrastructure in the Netherlands. In 2020, frequencies for 5G will be auctioned in the Netherlands for the first time. The eventual construction of 5G will require a great deal of effort. For example, 5G will require a much denser network than 4G. The construction costs of the 5G network will therefore be higher than 4G at the time.
There has been a clear mismatch on the labour market in the Netherlands in recent years. A shortage of personnel, for example, is seen as a major obstacle for entrepreneurs in the construction and IT sectors. In 2020, companies will once again encounter this problem.
Some companies become trapped in the 'commodity trap'; the services or products they offer are then barely distinguishable from those of their competitors, so that only price is decisive. However, the number of companies that can use the lowest price in the long term is limited. In 2020, this threat of the 'commodity trap' will also be fully present in a number of sectors.
The wishes of employees have changed. Today, more than in the past, employees are looking for a job that suits their own values, norms and beliefs. For companies it has become more important to pursue a 'purpose'.
The Labour Market Act came into effect on 1 January 2020. Employers who offer many flexible forms of work will have to deal with considerably higher WW premiums. Moreover, in the future, an on-call worker must be scheduled for at least four days before a working day in question. This imposes restrictions on companies that offer seasonal work, such as the hospitality industry.
Dutch hospital care faces a difficult task. The profit margins will be wafer-thin in 2020, because the increase in wage costs due to agreements already made with health insurers will only be partially reimbursed.
In order to prevent the quality of care from being compromised, care must therefore be organised differently. A logical route for this is for hospitals to ensure that care can be provided more 'at a distance'. This can be done by means of explanation videos, measuring health at a distance, making diagnoses at a distance and deploying care robots.
In order to limit global warming as much as possible, the Netherlands is committed to a 49 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. This target will only be achieved if the required energy transition gains momentum and planned projects are actually realized.
2020 could be the year in which various disciplines and sectors will be able to find each other better, so that the promises made in the climate agreement can actually be fulfilled. "Many people from various disciplines and sectors have contributed to the climate agreement. Unfortunately, it is not much more than a good start. The climate agreement only outlines a rough route towards the climate target of 2030. The real challenge lies in actually realizing all individual projects," says Arnold Mulder, sector banker Energy.
In the EAT Lancet report, 37 scientists have intensively examined the question of how ten billion people can be fed healthy food. An important part of the answer is that the diet must be adapted and production must be geared to this. More vegetables, fruit and nuts, and less red meat and sugar, for example.
The report's recommendations will gain a foothold in 2020. The food industry is therefore committed to healthier and more sustainable production. This seems easier than it is, because for many consumers price still plays a dominant role when buying food and drink. We do want more sustainable and healthier food, but it should not cost too much. Moreover, it has to be tasty.
Entrepreneurs also have to deal with political uncertainties. One of the most current of these, is the brexit. 2020, after 3.5 years of struggling, will finally be the year of the brexit. After the great historical victory of the British Conservatives, the departure of the Britten from the European Union (EU) seems inevitable. With his vote, the British voter has sent a clear signal that after all these years the decision must be made and that the agreement that the British Prime Minister Johnson made with the European Union in October must be implemented.
Source: © ABN AMRO
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