Stability in the European pork market

The European pork market remains calm, showing signs of stability and modest production growth. This trend is driven by higher margins that have led to increased production in some countries, such as Spain and Poland. The market's supply and demand appear balanced, although pork exports from the European Union continue to face pressure, according to an analysis by Rabobank.

Increase in production in the EU and UK

In January 2024, pork production in the EU-27 and the United Kingdom was 4% higher than the previous year. This rise is largely attributed to the recovery of production post-holidays. Total production in January amounted to 1,947 thousand tons. The stabilization of the European sow herd in 2023 suggests that production levels this year will be similar to last year. However, disease risks such as African Swine Fever and PRRS in Spain could negatively impact production figures.

Price trends in the Netherlands

Pork supply is tight across Europe, which has led to a rise in pork prices since February 2024. However, pork prices in most export markets, including the Netherlands, are experiencing a flattening trend. In week 13 of 2024, the pork price in the Netherlands was 14% lower than the European average, applying downward pressure on local prices. However, piglet prices in the Netherlands remain at a similar level to last year, and a seasonal decline is expected in the second quarter.

Favourable conditions for feed prices

There is currently an abundant global supply of corn and soy, leading to stable to slightly declining prices in the second quarter. However, wet weather conditions in countries such as France and the UK have resulted in moderate crop conditions, which is putting upward pressure on wheat quotations in Europe. This should keep feed prices favourable for livestock farmers, despite potential future challenges.

Export pressures persist

Pork exports from the EU-27 and the UK have fallen by 23% in the year up to February 2024, with significant reductions in exports to Asian countries due to decreased purchasing power and increased domestic production, particularly in China. However, exports to Vietnam increased by 43%, driven by a higher demand for by-products. These trends highlight the volatility and challenges within the international pork market.

Rabobank.nl