Salmon prices under pressure due to increasing production in 2025

Salmon prices are facing pressure due to an anticipated rise in production in 2025. According to the latest report from research firm Kontali, global salmon production is expected to grow by 3.5 to 4%. This growth is largely driven by a recovery in productivity in Norway and other parts of Europe. As a result, spot prices are expected to decline slightly throughout the year.

Production volumes in Norway are expected to increase by at least 40,000 tonnes Whole Fish Equivalent (WFE), while the rest of Europe is forecast to produce at least 35,000 tonnes more. This comes on top of a 5% volume increase in 2024 for regions including the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and the United Kingdom. Demand from the food service sector, such as sushi restaurants in Europe, North America, and Asia, has rebounded strongly following the pandemic, keeping prices high in the first half of 2025.

Impact of promotions and seasonal trends

A significant portion of salmon production will enter the market in the second half of 2025. Most volumes will be sold through retail channels, with producers focusing on promotional campaigns. However, it is expected that these promotions will not fully offset the surplus of salmon in the spot market. As a result, a noticeable price drop is forecasted, especially towards the end of the year.

This combination of increased production and falling prices points to a potentially volatile year for the salmon market in 2025. Market specialists anticipate significant pressure on prices in the second half of the year.

Kontali.com