Potato harvest in four EU countries set to fall by nearly a quarter

European potato processors should expect a substantially smaller harvest across the EU-4. DCA Market Intelligence expects the four countries to produce about 20.8 million metric tons of potatoes combined. That is nearly a quarter less than last season. Even so, a smaller crop does not automatically mean higher prices for frozen French fries.

Fewer hectares and lower yields

The EU-4 consists of the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Germany. Together, these countries form the main production base for Europe’s potato processors. A substantial share of the crop is processed into frozen French fries and other potato products.

Growers in all four countries planted fewer hectares of potatoes for processing. That followed the large 2025 harvest. The difficult export market for frozen French fries also played a role. Hot and dry weather then reduced yields per hectare.

In the Netherlands, planted area fell by about 15%. According to DCA, average yields per hectare are roughly 14% lower than last year. In Belgium, planted area declined by about 16.6%. It fell by roughly 10% in France and 11% in Germany.

Much of the crop under contract

Growers and processors contracted a large share of the crop months ago. Factories are now receiving most of their potatoes directly from the field. Trading on the open market remains limited.

Contract prices for the 2026 crop fell following the large harvest and weaker exports. According to DCA, contract prices for early deliveries are about 25% lower than last year. For later deliveries from storage, agreed prices are 15% to 17% lower than last year.

Despite the lower contract prices, frozen French fries will not automatically become cheaper at retail. Potatoes account for only part of the production cost. Processing, energy, frying oil, labor, packaging and transportation also add to the cost. So do cold storage and distribution. Higher prices on the open market do not automatically lead to higher retail prices for fries either.

Meanwhile, growers are harvesting significantly fewer metric tons per hectare. Much of their production is committed under lower-priced contracts. Higher prices for the limited volume available on the open market do not automatically make up for the yield loss.

Dcamarketintelligence.com