Positive outlook for the broiler sector

The broiler sector in the Netherlands is experiencing a positive outlook due to strong demand and a favorable price position for chicken. This is supported by increasing exports, including outside Europe, and reduced competition from Ukraine due to a decrease in quota. Additionally, the popularity of sustainable concepts is rising, although this leads to lower production in the Netherlands. Rising feed costs due to EU deforestation regulations starting in 2025, however, could present a challenge, this is according to Rabobank.

In the first half of 2024, market conditions for chicken have improved compared to the latter half of 2023. Chicken prices have increased, while feed prices have slightly decreased. The strong demand for chicken in Europe, supported by the increased disposable income of consumers, plays a crucial role here. The competition from imported chicken, particularly from Ukraine, is currently less than last year, contributing to the positive market outlook. In both the Netherlands and Germany, the supply is tighter, positively influencing broiler prices. The feed profit margins for poultry farmers are currently high and well above the long-term average.

Growth in European production, decline in the Netherlands

Dutch chicken production declined by 4.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter in 2023. This makes the Netherlands the only broiler sector in Europe to see a decrease in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the total European chicken production grew by 5%, primarily driven by accelerated growth in Central and Eastern Europe, such as in Poland and Hungary. Production in France is recovering after a period of avian influenza, while growth in Spain continues. For the Netherlands, the decline is almost entirely due to the shift to Beter Leven (1*) chicken, resulting in a smaller supply in the regular market segment.

Impact of export and import

The declining Dutch chicken production affects the Netherlands' export position. In the first quarter of 2024, total exports of Dutch chicken fell by 7% compared to the first quarter of 2023. However, exports to countries outside the EU are increasing again as more avian influenza restrictions are lifted. The Netherlands and many other European countries have been declared free of avian influenza, leading to more exports to non-EU countries and better prices for dark meat products such as leg meat and chicken feet. Simultaneously, chicken imports during this period decreased by 3% compared to the same period last year due to lower supplies from Poland and Ukraine. It is expected that chicken imports in the Netherlands will continue to rise due to the tighter domestic supply.

Rabobank.nl