High demand for Dutch food

ABN AMRO estimates, based on export figures, that the export value of Dutch food products has increased by 5% over the whole of 2019. The export value of meat rose hardest, by more than 7 percent, as a result of African swine fever in China. The value of fish exports rose by 6 percent and the value of fruit and vegetables by 7 percent. The export value of dairy products rose very modestly in 2019.

ABN AMRO expects food exports to increase further in 2020. The main sales countries are Germany and the United Kingdom (despite the brexit). China is a less important export country, but has the highest growth rate, due to rising demand for meat from China.

Nitrogen measures

ABN AMRO expects the labour shortage to continue to grow. At the end of 2019, 17% of agricultural entrepreneurs were faced with a shortage of staff, which seriously hampered their business operations. In addition, agricultural entrepreneurs have to deal with nitrogen measures, which restrict their growth. 

Pig herd

The pig herd is also shrinking as a result of the stoppers regulation, the hot remediation and stricter regulations. After a 2% decline in 2019, ABN AMRO expects a further 3% decline in pig stocks in 2020 and a further 7% decline in 2021.

Click here for ABN AMRO's full Agricultural Sector Forecast (Dutch only)