Growth in the pork market, but disruptions loom

The European pork market is showing slight production growth, but concerns are rising over potential disruptions. After a period of stable revenue prices, there is now downward pressure on prices. This is compounded by an increase in pork production within the European Union, while exports to markets outside the EU are declining. Geopolitical tensions could further impact the situation, according to Rabobank.

Pork production in the EU-27 and the United Kingdom increased by 4% in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period last year. Poland recorded the highest production growth, primarily due to the expansion of the sow herd in 2023. Denmark saw a slight production increase despite a decrease in the number of slaughtered animals, thanks to a rise in slaughter weight. Germany, Spain, France, and the Netherlands also experienced modest growth. However, there are no signs of structural growth within the EU, as the sow herd in countries like Germany and Denmark remains stable.

Export under pressure

European pork exports decreased by 7% in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period last year. Exports to China and Japan, in particular, saw significant declines, while there was growth in shipments to South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Dutch exports dropped by 3%, mainly due to a sharp decline in shipments to China and Japan. At the same time, dependence on the Chinese market has decreased, which could be significant given the tensions surrounding China and Taiwan. Dutch exports to China mainly consist of by-products, which may come under pressure in the future due to changes in global trade flows.

Rabobank.nl