FSIN: estimation of corona impact on food sector

The world has been startled by the coronavirus and gradually the contours of the economic effects are beginning to become visible. FSIN offers direction to the food sector. Not all knowledge and insights about the course of this crisis are yet known. But FSIN has made a start in this search for the impact of corona on the economy and the sector.

Out-of-home consumption

An initial calculation shows that the outdoor eating market loses almost €2.5 billion in turnover that year as a result of the corona crisis. Food retail, on the other hand, sees its turnover increase by 1.8 billion as a result of hamster behaviour and the fact that food and drink outlets are closed.

The Convenience channel is losing more than €400 million. Fastservice companies, just like the catering industry, have to close their doors, with the exception of delivery and drives. Convenience shops at railway stations and airports are hit hard. Hardly anyone will be in those places in the coming months. People are choosing their car faster. 

Home consumption

Home food consumption rose by € 1.8 billion this year. Most of the additional turnover will go to the supermarket. They achieved record sales for two months.

Specialty stores can also benefit from the crisis (liquor stores, bakers, butchers), but in total the specialty stores are also turning in turnover. 

Several scenarios conceivable

Scenario 1: Economic recession in 2020 to mid-2021

Drop in consumer confidence and the economy, which meant a sharp drop in foodservice sales. Turnover rose at food retailers. Stable values such as convenience, enjoyment and health become unstable. 

Scenario 2: A deep crisis for the long term

Doesn't enter until the coronary crisis lasts. National economic contraction of 4%. Leisure, holidays, travel and nightlife will decline by more than 50% in 2020. Bankruptcies of thousands of companies, especially in the food and beverage sectors. Consumer confidence drops to record lows. Pensions will definitely be severely cut. Total food spending will no longer rise. Out-of-home consumption falls sharply in market share.