Chocolate prices continue to rise due to cocoa shortage

Over the past few years, the price of chocolate products has increased significantly. This is due to rising costs for ingredients like dairy, sugar, and energy, but also because of a cocoa shortage. Since the beginning of 2024, the global market price for cocoa has doubled and is nearly three times higher than it was a year ago. As a result, the price of chocolate products is expected to rise further in the coming months.

The surge in cocoa prices is mainly due to poor harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s leading cocoa producers. Adverse weather conditions, aging trees, and plant diseases have disrupted production. These problems are not expected to be resolved quickly, fueling concerns about a structural shortage and pushing prices even higher.

Impact on consumers 

Chocolate manufacturers face the challenge of not passing all these higher costs directly on to consumers. The average Dutch consumer is already eating less chocolate than a few years ago. To limit further price increases, manufacturers may opt for smaller packaging or use less cocoa in their products. However, it is expected that products with higher cocoa content, such as dark chocolate, will be most affected by the price hikes.

Future outlook 

The cocoa harvest in 2025/26 is anticipated to improve somewhat, which could provide slight relief. However, the introduction of the European Union’s deforestation regulation (EUDR) in January 2025, which requires importers to prove that their cocoa is not linked to deforestation, will likely result in additional costs and potential volatility in the market.

Rabobank.nl